Apartment Industry Updates

May 17, 2012 By aagla

By Greg Brown, NAA Legislative Affairs

Apartment Industry Colleagues,

Let me begin this month by thanking everyone who made the trip to Washington, D.C. in March for the 2012 NAA Capitol Conference. We established a new record with 525 attendees and once again showed up in force on Capitol Hill for lobby day. More than 162 meetings were held with members of Congress and/or their staff. But the action did not start and stop in the nation’s Capitol. Several of our affiliates held meetings with their members of Congress before or after the Capitol Conference, while still taking advantage of the opportunity to see Congressional staff on lobby day. We never miss an opportunity to communicate our message to policymakers and their staff!

Lobby day was the main event for Capitol Conference, but a lot of other activities also took place. Those interested in PAC fundraising and grassroots mobilization attended our two educational sessions on these critical components of any advocacy effort. The NAA Legislative Committee met during the conference and covered several hot industry topics including R-22 shortages, building code changes, tax reform proposals and pool accessibility compliance requirements. Former White House Press Secretary Dana Perino and political pundit and election prognosticator Stu Rothenberg were keynote speakers at two of our general sessions. Finally, NAA held another very successful fundraising event benefiting the Better Government Fund and NAAPAC.

It appears that the Republican Presidential primary contest is nearing its end as Mitt Romney methodically assembles the delegates he needs to officially take the party’s nomination. Once that happens he will be able to focus completely on President Obama in the race for the White House. The winner of that race will be determined by a lot of factors. Here are three which have been the focus of much discussion and debate among pundits and prognosticators.

First, how do voters feel about where they’ve been for the last four years and where they are going? This is largely a referendum on the President, of course, and if you look at some of the polling, it is a mixed bag. As of February, more voters disapproved of the job the President is doing versus approved by a small margin. At the same time, however, the number of Americans who think we are heading in the right direction are going up while those who feel we are on the wrong track are going down.

Another factor is, of course, the state of the economy. Often this is less about statistics and more about consumer confidence. Again, polling in this area is mixed. Since last summer’s debt ceiling cage match, consumer sentiment has steadily improved and continues to climb, but at the same time year-over-year percentage change in income is negligible or even negative. Some of the most-watched economic indicators are also mixed. Unemployment remains more than 8% despite fairly solid job gains in the past couple of months, but the number of homes in foreclosure has steadily declined since the highs of 2009.

Finally, we must consider the environment in those states that will have the greatest impact on the elections this fall; otherwise known as “swing” states. Pundits may differ on the exact mix of states, but some subset of the following is generally agreed upon: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina. If you group these states by region, you find that they all experienced at least as bad (and in many cases worse) of an experience with job losses and loss in median family income as the rest of the nation, on average. Put another way, these states felt the recession the hardest and therefore voters here may be especially motivated to make their voice heard on who is (a) responsible and (b) best equipped to turn things around.

The three factors discussed above are definitely worth watching between now and Election Day, but they are also not the only ones that could decide who occupies the White House in January 2013. There are wild cards such as another conflict in the Middle East, economic meltdown in Europe or a third-party Presidential candidate emerging this fall. Any one of these or some other factors could turn all analysis and assumptions in their head.

That is all for this month. I hope that you find this information valuable and welcome your suggestions on other topics for future communiqués. If you have questions or comments, please contact me at 703-797-0615 or greg@naahq.org.

See you next month!

Doomsday Clock Ticks Away – Will It Reach Midnight?

November 15, 2011 By aagla

By Greg Brown, NAA Legislative Affairs

I was perusing the great oracle that is Wikipedia the other day and came across something that is somewhat of a Cold War icon, but I think has some currency in our current national political environment. It is the “doomsday clock,” a device maintained at the University of Chicago by an organization called the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. This device is a visual representation of the distance of the world from global disaster (typically nuclear war, but recently adapted for other potential calamities). The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer we are to the end.

The closest the clock has ever gotten to midnight (11:58 p.m.) was in 1953 when the United States and the Soviet Union tested nuclear weapons within nine months of each other. The furthest it has ever been away from midnight (11:46 p.m.) was 1991 when the United States and the Soviet Union signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). Currently, the clock stands at 11:54 p.m., six minutes to midnight.

Considered in the present context of hyper-partisanship in Washington, D.C., I thought perhaps we should establish a similar clock to show how far away we stand from a government shutdown, debt default or other fiscal misfortune. If one already existed, we would have been at one minute to midnight at least three times already this year.

First, it was the debate last spring over the 2011 federal budget that took us to within days of a government shutdown. Then there was the July/August fight over whether to increase the nation’s debt limit. We danced the night away, right to the edge of default. Finally, we had another government shutdown scare just last month because of disagreement over whether to offset (pay for) the cost of disaster relief to several states impacted by recent floods. Noah, where are you?

It used to be that when a member of Congress used tactics that took you to the precipice of disaster they were accused of “brinksmanship.” Now, these tactics are becoming the rule rather than the exception. And while all of these potential calamities were narrowly avoided, there is a cost for constantly standing at the brink. It undermines the confidence of the markets, other nations, and perhaps most importantly, American consumers. We wonder. Can our leaders get their act together and get things done to save the economy? All parties are important players in our eventual economic recovery (and the continued success of the apartment industry). Their confidence in our political system is critical.

Speaking of looming deadlines, the Joint Committee on Deficit Reduction (aka the Super committee) continues its deliberations toward reaching $1.2 trillion-$1.5 trillion in federal budget savings. It is zipped lips thus far from committee members (at least publicly), and no one is talking on the record about what potential deal may be coming together.

Off the record and outside the lines, a deal on taxes in addition to cuts in federal spending still appear to be a possibility although no one is saying what that means. As for what is to be cut, foreign aid and funding for U.S. engagement around the world are commonly mentioned and on the block. Those are small dollars, however, so there is a lot more that must be found to hit the goal. The clock is ticking and little time remains for the group to reach consensus and put something before Congress by year’s end.

I will close with a request (I can’t help myself but ask for something, can I?). NAA is engaged in an effort to promote the good work of our affiliates and members in the area of homelessness. If you are part of a homelessness assistance program in your area, let us know by emailing Carole Roper at carole@naahq.org. Your good work helps us provide examples for others to follow and creates a positive narrative about owners, operators and managers of apartments.